# Goals

Replicate the three core exhibits of Stambaugh (1999, *Journal of Financial
Economics* 54):

1. **Table 1** — the finite-sample distribution of the OLS predictive slope
   (bias, skewness, kurtosis, and the "true" p-value), simulated at parameters
   estimated from CRSP data for the paper's four subsamples.
2. **Table 2** — Bayesian posterior moments for the slope under four
   prior/likelihood specifications, including the exact-likelihood cases that
   require Metropolis-Hastings sampling.
3. **Figure 1** — every estimate plotted in (persistence, slope) space, showing
   that all corrections move the slope down and the persistence up together.

Then **update all of it through 2024**, and ship two educational products: a
guided walkthrough notebook and an interactive playground.

Success criterion: match the paper's published values within a documented
tolerance (exact digits are unattainable — CRSP has revised 27 years of
history), with every number generated by code and the whole pipeline rebuilt by
one `doit` command.